Saturday, January 2, 2010

Direction for 2010 - Thinking out Loud

I would say that 2009 ended with a bull cycle and I am not looking to buy any stocks when the market opens for 2010.

However, I will be evaluating certain companies in the Pharmaceutical industry:

Courtesy of Wiki:
The following is a list of the twelve largest pharmaceutical companies ranked by revenue as of July 2009 in the Fortune Global 500.[1]
Rank[1] ↓ Company ↓ Country ↓ Total Revenues (USD millions) ↓ Net income/ (loss) (USD millions) ↓ Employees ↓
1 Johnson & Johnson United States 63,747.0[2] 12,949.0 118,700
2 Pfizer United States 48,296.0[3] 8,104.0 81,800
3 GlaxoSmithKline United Kingdom 44,654.0[4] 8,438.6 99,003
4 Roche Switzerland 44,267.5[5] 8,288.1 80,080
5 Sanofi-Aventis France 42,179.0[6] 5,636.7 98,213
6 Novartis Switzerland 41,459.0[7] 8,195.0 96,717
7 AstraZeneca United Kingdom 31,601.0[8] 6,101.0 65,000
8 Abbott Laboratories United States 29,527.6[9] 4,880.7 68,838
9 Merck United States 23,850.3[10] 7,808.4 55,200
10 Wyeth United States 22,833.9[11] 4,417.8 47,426
11 Bristol-Myers Squibb United States 21,366.0[12] 5,247.0 35,000
12 Eli Lilly United States 20,378.0[13] (2,071.9) 40,500

Why Pharmy and not other industries?
Well, my intention is not craved in stoned but thinking out loud on a lazy Saturday afternoon, I intend to do much fundamental and technical research and analysis on this industry and of course ask myself the million dollar question, "How much?" before plonking down any cent.

My base is still Forex and I do have the capacity at this point of time for investing in some long term stocks not because we are in a bull cycle but because I am in the process of being a defensive to enterprising investor.

Monday, July 6, 2009

A Goldman Trading Scandal?



Did someone try to steal Goldman Sachs' secret sauce?

While most in the United States were celebrating the Fourth of July holiday, a Russian immigrant living in New Jersey was being held on federal charges of stealing secret computer trading codes from a major New York-based financial institution. Authorities did not identify the firm, but sources say that institution is none other than Goldman Sachs.

The charges, if proven, are significant because the codes that the accused, Sergey Aleynikov, tried to steal are the secret sauce to Goldman's automated stock and commodities trading business. Federal authorities contend the computer codes and related-trading files that Aleynikov uploaded to a German-based website help this major financial institution generate millions of dollars in profits each year.

he platform is one of the things that gives Goldman an advantage over the competition when it comes to the rapid-fire trading of stocks and commodities. Federal authorities say the platform quickly processes rapid developments in the markets and using secret mathematical formulas, allows the firm to make highly-profitable automated trades.

The criminal case has the potential to shed a light on the inner workings of an important profit center for Goldman and other Wall Street firms. The charges also raise serious questions about the safeguards that Wall Street firms deploy to protect these costly-to-build proprietary trading systems.

The criminal case began to unfold on the evening of July 3, when Aleynikov was arrested by FBI agents at Newark Airport after returning from Chicago. Aleynikov apparently had just started a job with another big firm in Chicago after leaving his previous employer in New York in early June. It appears that the financial institution allegedly victimized by Aleynikov had alerted federal authorities that its former employee might be up to no good.

On July 4, Aleynikov was processed on a "theft of trade secrets charge" in a criminal complaint. As of this morning, he was still being held at the Metropolitan Correction Center in Brooklyn.

A Goldman spokesman declined to comment on the incident.

Calls to Aleynikov's home in New Jersey, which he shares with his wife, were not returned. A spokeswoman for the United States Attorney's Office in Manhattan did not comment.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation, in charging Aleynikov, says he began working for the major financial institution in May 2007 as a computer programmer and left in early June. That matches the description of a man named Serge Aleynikov on the social networking site LinkedIn (the difference in spelling of the first name could not be immediately explained).

The biographical information for Aleynikov on LinkedIn says he joined Goldman in May 2007 and was vice president for equity strategy. The bio says he was responsible for "development of a distributed real-time co-located high-frequency trading platform."

The case against Aleynikov may explain why the New York Stock Exchange moved quickly last week to stop reporting program stock trading for its most active firms. Goldman was often at the top of the chart — far ahead of its competitors.

It's possible Goldman had asked the NYSE to stop reporting the number after it discovered that someone may have infiltrated the proprietary computer codes it uses.

Here's the way the criminal complaint describes the Goldman trading platform:

"The Financial Institution has devoted substantial resources to developing and maintaining a computer platform that allows the Financial Institution to engage in sophisticated high-speed, and high-volume trades on various stock and commodities markets. Among other things, the platform is capable of quickly obtaining and processing information regarding rapid developments in these markets."

Federal authorities appear to believe Aleynikov may have had help. The German website that Aleynikov is accused of uploading the stolen information to is registered to a person in London.

While the case is still unfolding, there is more information to unearth about Aleynikov. For instance, it appears that he and his wife are competitive ballroom dancers—there are videos of them on YouTube.com.

Many questions remain. Which Chicago firm hired Aleynikov?

The job he took in Chicago, according to the criminal complaint, paid nearly three times more than his $400,000 salary at Goldman.

Also there's more to learn about anyone who might have been helping him and the fallout the case may have for Goldman. When he was arrested, Aleynikov told the FBI he "only intended to collect 'open source' files on which he had worked, but later realized that he had obtained more files than he intended."

Quick, get this guy a good lawyer.

One question investors need to ask is whether this incident will have any impact on Goldman's second-quarter earnings. The alleged wrongdoing by Aleynikov took place at the beginning of June—although it's not clear if it had any material impact on automated trading.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Friday, January 2, 2009

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

U.S. Treasury To Invest $25bn in JPMorgan, Citi, BofA, $10bn in Goldman Sachs

It was revealed that the Treasury department announced plans to invest $25 billion each in JP Morgan, Citi, and Bank of America. Goldman Sachs is to receive $10 billion, while Bank of New York, State Street, and Wells Fargo have been set to receive undisclosed amounts at the moment.

Remember, Buffett has a stake in Wells Fargo.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Buffettology 001

I'm going to start by including snippets of what we can learn from Warren Buffett or what is currently swirling in his mind.

  • It has been a month since B has emerged as a significant investor in both Goldman Sachs and GE - iconic names in the US business world.
  • B's investment policy has always been to invest in specific businesses, not on the direction of the market.
  • The deals that he has struck are on characteristically preferential terms (that say little about the prospects for other equity investors).
  • He has a 10% coupon on a preference share, with an option to buy additional shares at a discount to the current share price (as long as his picks don't go bust).
  • His unqualified success was Gillette and Salomon Brothers (1991).

In lobbying for the Paulson plan through Congress, B has made it clear that he regards the current crisis as America's "Financial Pearl Harbour", potentially the harbinger of the worst economic downturn since the 1930s.

His instinct is that the recession will be longer and deeper than most commentators think, and that meltdown in the financial system remains a real risk.

While a number of individual shares now look strikingly cheap and are likely to yield handsome returns over time, it is far from clear that the market has fully discounted the damage to corporate earnings to come.

Jonathan Davis - Independent Investor.

Monday, October 6, 2008

Stocks to Watch

I will be posting up information about stocks that I am looking at and monitoring and possibly buy for long term.

I understand the volatility in the market is enormous and personally, I think the bail out will not work. No doubt it has been put in place to cushion the impact it has made on the financial markets but still, the problem is bigger and is not contained.

Warren Buffett has made a few buys over this period and some of them include:
Goldman Sachs
Wells Fargo & Co.
American Express
Washington Post Co.

These will be interesting stocks to watch out for. I do not think we have seen a bottom as the Asian markets were crimson red on the Monday opening even though the Vote was a Yes over the weekend. I do not think we have reached the bottom yet and I see more pressure to push stocks down for a while.

I will quote W.B for today,
"If you don't know jewelry, know the jeweler."
 

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